Study: Federal health care may cost Ohio jobs
The private sector and especially small businesses in Ohio could lose thousands of jobs when federal health care laws take hold, according to a new study.
The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, to raise revenue, includes a tax on health insurance premiums, structured as an annual fee on insurers, beginning in 2014. According to a study by the National Federation of Independent Businesses, analysis shows insurers will pass on the tax to consumers.
Ohio is forecast to lose 2,500 jobs by 2021, with 1,600 in small business. The state also is predicted to have $1.1 billion is sales lost for Ohio small business, according to the study.
Nationally, employers, mainly small businesses, to cut out 125,000 to 249,000 jobs in 2021.
The tax is intended to collect about $90 billion in revenue from insurers through 2020 in predetermined annual amounts. A government study released in March, included in the NFIB study, estimated the tax would raise health insurance premiums about 3 percent, or $5,000 per family, in a decade.
If the health insurance premium tax takes effect, "the vast majority of small businesses currently providing insurance will see their premiums increase," according to the NFIB study.
Depending on an assumed inflation rate and considering a 3 percent hike in premiums, businesses could lose 150,000 to 249,000 jobs in 2021. Of those, 59 percent could come from small businesses (fewer than 500 employees).
If premiums increase 2.5 percent, results show fewer job losses: between 125,000 and 208,000.
Additionally, the study said estimated real GDP could decline to $22 billion to $36 billion lower than without the tax on insurers.
Many people in the Dayton business community have expressed skepticism regarding health care reform. In a previous Dayton Business Journal online poll, roughly 60 percent of respondents thought health care reform would negatively impact their business.
E-mail lenglehart@bizjournals.com. Call (937) 528-4426. Twitter.com/lenglehartDBJ
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